https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12412/2475 2026-09-06T04:44:24Z 2026-09-06T04:44:24Z Christl, Michael Peichl, Andreas Wibault, Tiphaine https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12412/7376 2026-08-14T21:00:27Z 2026-07-21T00:00:00Z

A Regressive Shock? The Distributional Consequences of Middle East Conflict-Driven Inflation for German Households Christl, Michael; Peichl, Andreas; Wibault, Tiphaine The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East in late February 2026 led to a sharp upward revision in inflation forecasts for Germany, which we attribute primarily to the conflict itself. Using microsimulation methods adapted to simulate a commodity price change, we translate this forecast revision into upper bounds on household-specific purchasing-power losses via a compensating variation approach, distinguishing the loss recovered through consumption taxes from the full loss including the pre-tax transfer to producers. Both measures are sizeable and regressive: in 2026, the average household loses 0.25% of income through the tax channel and 1.15% under the full measure, with bottom-decile losses of 0.63% and 2.87% against 0.12% and 0.65% for the top decile. The Gini coefficient rises by up to 0.14 points, and elderly households are disproportionately affected. Our results show that a supply-side shock originating outside Europe can have a sizeable and unequal impact on household living standards.

2026-07-21T00:00:00Z Rebollo-Bueno, Sara Tarín Sanz, Adrián https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12412/7375 2026-08-14T21:00:31Z 2026-04-28T00:00:00Z

Discurso do Medo na Propaganda: Estratégias dos Líderes Políticos Espanhóis no X Para Influenciar a Agenda Mediática (2015–2023) Rebollo-Bueno, Sara; Tarín Sanz, Adrián Numa sociedade moldada por uma cultura do medo e caracterizada pelas dinâmicas da sociedade de risco, os partidos políticos recorrem cada vez mais ao medo enquanto instrumen-to de comunicação para captar a atenção do público. Este artigo examina como os principais partidos políticos espanhóis utilizam as suas contas oficiais no X (anteriormente Twitter) para influenciar a agenda mediática através de mensagens que enquadram questões políticas como ameaças iminentes. Com base numa análise de conteúdo de publicações entre 2015 e 2023, o es-tudo identifica tanto as estratégias retóricas mobilizadas como as ameaças mais frequentemente invocadas — sobretudo a crise económica e os movimentos separatistas. A análise incide sobre publicações que contêm entrevistas ou excertos de entrevistas partilhadas pelos seis partidos políticos de âmbito estatal representados no Congresso dos Deputados de Espanha, resultando num corpus de 968 unidades de análise. Foi desenvolvido um esquema de codificação fundamen-tado em critérios metodológicos estabelecidos para identificar a presença de desencadeadores do medo, os tipos de ameaças mencionadas, o foco temático das mensagens e os objetivos de natureza propagandística. Os resultados revelam que a relevância atribuída a determinadas ameaças varia em função da orientação ideológica, sublinhando a utilização estratégica do medo na comunicação partidária. Conclui-se que este tipo de mensagens não só perpetua uma cultura do medo e molda as perceções de segurança, como também contribui para a fragmentação do discurso público. Ao adaptar a sua retórica de modo a mobilizar as ansiedades dominantes, os partidos políticos consolidam a sua visibilidade mediática, reforçam narrativas ideológicas e re-configuram os contornos da preocupação coletiva

2026-04-28T00:00:00Z Pastor-Cisneros, Raquel Pereira-Payo, Damián Denche-Zamorano, Ángel Mendoza Muñoz, María Calzada-Rodríguez, José Ignacio Franco-García, Juan Manuel https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12412/7339 2026-07-16T21:04:55Z 2026-06-02T00:00:00Z

Physical inactivity, a risk factor for mental disorders in Spanish youth: a cross-sectional study Pastor-Cisneros, Raquel; Pereira-Payo, Damián; Denche-Zamorano, Ángel; Mendoza Muñoz, María; Calzada-Rodríguez, José Ignacio; Franco-García, Juan Manuel Aim Mental health has become a major social issue, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, with raising levels of anxiety and depression among adolescents and young adults and the subsequent higher prescription of antidepressants and anxiolytics. In this regard, while aspects such as obesity, sedentary behaviors and substance use are recognized risk factors, physical activity has been associated with lower levels of depression and anxiety. The study aimed (1) to investigate the associations between physical activity frequency (PAF) and self-reported depression and anxiety, as well as antidepressants and anxiolytics use, in the young Spanish population; (2) to identify potential risks factors for depression, chronic anxiety and use of antidepressants and anxiolytics concerning variables such as sex, age, BMI, smoking, study level and PAF. Subject and methods A cross-sectional study based on data from the European Health Survey in Spain (EHSS 2020) was conducted, including a final sample of 3,416 participants aged 15–34 years. Results Associations between PAF and self-reported depression and anxiety and use of antidepressants and anxiolytics were found, with physically inactive groups showing higher prevalence. Being female, physically inactive and smoker, among others, emerged as notable risk factors for depression and anxiety. Additionally, being female, older age and smoking increase the prevalence of antidepressant and anxiolytic use. Being in secondary school is associated with increased use of anxiolytics. Conclusion Physical inactivity is associated with a higher prevalence of depression, anxiety, and use of antidepressants and anxiolytics in the target population, with PA programs and initiatives being potential protective factors.

2026-06-02T00:00:00Z Rodríguez-Rosell, David Pereira Neiva, Henrique Almeida Marinho, Daniel Yáñez-García, Juan Manuel Rojas-Jaramillo, Andrés González-Badillo, Juan José Cardoso Marques, Mário https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12412/7338 2026-07-16T21:02:42Z 2026-06-17T00:00:00Z

Improved Neuromuscular Performance in Low-Load vs. Moderate-Load Resistance Training Among Young Elite Swimmers Rodríguez-Rosell, David; Pereira Neiva, Henrique; Almeida Marinho, Daniel; Yáñez-García, Juan Manuel; Rojas-Jaramillo, Andrés; González-Badillo, Juan José; Cardoso Marques, Mário Resistance training (RT) is commonly used to enhance neuromuscular performance and sprint swimming outcomes. However, the optimal relative load for elite junior swimmers remains unclear. In particular, little is known about whether very low relative loads can elicit meaningful adaptations while minimizing neuromuscular fatigue in athletes exposed to high concurrent training demands. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the effects of two land-based RT programs differing only in relative load intensity (40–50% vs. 55–65% 1RM), performed with maximal intended concentric velocity, on strength, jumping ability, and 50 m freestyle swimming performance in elite junior swimmers. Eighteen elite junior swimmers (15.6 ± 0.9 years) from a national high-performance program were randomly assigned to a low-load (40–50% 1RM; n = 9) or moderate-load (55–65% 1RM; n = 9) group. Both groups completed an 8-week RT program (2 sessions·week−1) with identical exercise selection, volume, execution velocity, and in-water training load. Neuromuscular performance (countermovement jump, squat, bench press, and pull-up strength) and swimming performance (50 m freestyle from the starting block and in-water start) were assessed pre- and post-intervention. Both RT protocols improved squat and bench press strength and 50 m freestyle performance, whereas significant improvements in countermovement jump, pull-up strength, and maximal pull-up repetitions were observed only in the low-load group. Significant group × time interactions were found for countermovement jump, maximal number of pull-up repetitions, and 50 m freestyle performance from the starting block, indicating more favorable changes over time in the low-load group. In conclusion, both low- and moderate-load high-velocity RT improved neuromuscular and 50 m freestyle performance outcomes in elite junior swimmers. However, the low-load RT (40–50% 1RM) appeared to provide additional benefits in specific outcomes (i.e., jumping, pull-ups, and 50 m performance from the starting block). These findings suggest that relatively low loads may be a practical alternative to moderate-load RT in high-volume swimming training environments.

2026-06-17T00:00:00Z