Study of Economic and Demographic Dynamics using General Equilibrium Models and Interaction Analysis

Abstract

The PhD dissertation is composed of a series of economic impact assessments for potential public policy recommendations. For this purpose, simulations and estimations have been performed though several approaches grounded in the general equilibrium framework. At the same time, econometric techniques, time series analysis, have been applied to assess and quantify the correspondence between economic and demographic variables, referred to as interaction analysis. Considering this, the present thesis adopts versatile approaches, enabling a comprehensive understanding of economic and demographic dynamics. The primary goal of this dissertation is to determine the economic impact produced by demographic shifts, focusing on variations in the composition of age groups of the population and migration. This leads to the development of various goals, such as examining the decision-making of economic agents within the framework of Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) models, more specifically, Overlapping Generations (OLG) models. Additionally, design and prepare economic databases, Social Accounting Matrices (henceforth, SAM), for the calibration of the economic model to be used. Moreover, the methodological framework employed in this thesis includes the application of time series analysis to examine the main determinants influencing internal migration within regions of Spain by employing Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models along with Dynamic Factor Models (DFM). In general, this thesis is composed of multiple studies associated with the intersectoral relationships within an economy, migration and population ageing.

El documento es la parte pública de la tesis que se encuentra embargada.