Economic impact of the drought in Spain: measurement for the adoption of measures

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the economic implications of meteorological drought in Spain. The study seeks to provide decision-makers with crucial insights into the macroeconomic effects of drought, enabling them to devise mitigation strategies and minimise its impact on economic activity. The Partial Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) is employed within the Input-Output analysis framework extended to a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Spain to achieve this goal. The database utilised for this analysis is the FNAM for Spain in 2017, in millions of euros, obtained from the Full International and Global Accounts for Research in Input-Output Analysis (FIGARO) project, a collaboration between Eurostat and the European Commission. The study aims to estimate the economic impact of drought on the productive sectors of the Spanish economy in terms of sectoral production and GDP. This involves simulating the partial reduction in value-added resulting from variations in average water productivity per gross value added, based on the drought indicator SPI-24. Three scenarios are generated: 1) drought, 2) moderate drought, and 3) severe drought. In quantitative terms, the simulated drought scenarios could lead to a drop in GDP of 0.88% for the drought scenario, 1.61% for the moderate drought scenario, and 1.76% for the severe drought scenario. Additionally, it is important to recognise that water scarcity hampers the social and economic development of cities and regions beyond the results in quantitative terms.

Es la versión preprint del artículo. Se puede consultar la versión final en https://doi.org/10.1142/S2382624X24500073