Assessing Rwanda’s National electrification strategy: Impact and trade-offs

Abstract

Like many African countries, Rwanda faces challenges with high biomass reliance and low electricity access, impeding sustainable development. To address this, the 2016 National Electrification Strategy (NES) was launched, promoting both on-grid and off-grid renewable solutions. This study assesses the impact of the NES on electricity access, renewable energy consumption share, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The key findings reveal a multifaceted outcome: the NES significantly boosted electricity access by approximately 17 percentage points. However, it led to a decrease in the share of renewable energy consumption by more than 4 percentage points. Total GHG emissions exceed the synthetic control by about 1070 kilotons of CO2 equivalent. These results highlight crucial trade-offs between rapid electrification and environmental sustainability. Robustness checks confirm our findings. The study provides valuable quantitative evidence on the complex outcomes of a major electrification policy in a developing economy. The results underscore the critical need for integrated policy frameworks that simultaneously pursue electrification goals while implementing measures to preserve renewable energy usage and mitigate adverse environmental impacts, offering insights for policymakers seeking to balance these objectives.